Performance of Portfolios Based on the Expected Utility-Entropy Fund Rating Approach

Yang and Qiu proposed and reframed an expected utility–entropy (EU-E) based decision model. Later on, a similar numerical representation for a risky choice was axiomatically developed by Luce et al. under the condition of segregation. Recently, we established a fund rating approach based on the EU-E decision model and Morningstar ratings. In this paper, we apply the approach to US mutual funds and construct portfolios using the best rating funds. Furthermore, we evaluate the performance of the fund ratings based on the EU-E decision model against Morningstar ratings by examining the performance of the three models in portfolio selection. The conclusions show that portfolios constructed using the ratings based on the EU-E models with moderate tradeoff coefficients perform better than those constructed using Morningstar. The conclusion is robust to different rebalancing intervals.     

The Intensity of Heat Exchange between Rock and Flowing Gas in Terms of Gas-Geodynamic Phenomena

Gas-induced geodynamic phenomena can occur during underground mining operations if the porous structure of the rock is filled with gas at high pressure. In such cases, the original compact rock structure disintegrates into grains of small dimensions, which are then transported along the mine working space. Such geodynamic events, particularly outbursts of gas and rock, pose a danger both to the life of miners and to the functioning of the mine infrastructure. These incidents are rare in copper ore mining, but they have recently begun to occur, and have not yet been fully investigated. To ensure the safety of mining operations, it is necessary to determine parameters of the rock–gas system for which the energy of the gas will be smaller than the work required to disintegrate and transport the rock. Such a comparison is referred to as an energy balance and serves as a starting point for all engineering analyses. During mining operations, the equilibrium of the rock–gas system is disturbed, and the rapid destruction of the rock is initiated together with sudden decompression of the gas contained in its porous structure. The disintegrated rock is then transported along the mine working space in a stream of released gas. Estimation of the energy of the gas requires investigation of the type of thermodynamic transformation involved in the process. In this case, adiabatic transformation would mean that the gas, cooled in the course of decompression, remains at a temperature significantly lower than that of the surrounding rocks throughout the process. However, if we assume that the transformation is isothermal, then the cooled gas will heat up to the original temperature of the rock in a very short time (<1 s). Because the quantity of energy in the case of isothermal transformation is almost three times as high as in the adiabatic case, obtaining the correct energy balance for gas-induced geodynamic phenomena requires detailed analysis of this question. For this purpose, a unique experimental study was carried out to determine the time required for heat exchange in conditions of very rapid flows of gas around rock grains of different sizes. Numerical simulations reproducing the experiments were also designed. The results of the experiment and the simulation were in good agreement, indicating a very fast rate of heat exchange. Taking account of the parameters of the experiment, the thermodynamic transformation may be considered to be close to isothermal.     

Collective risk models with dependence

In actuarial science, collective risk models, in which the aggregate claim amount of a portfolio is defined in terms of random sums, play a crucial role. In these models, it is common to assume that the number of claims and their amounts are independent, even if this might not always be the case. We consider collective risk models with different dependence structures. Due to the importance of such risk models in an actuarial setting, we first investigate a collective risk model with dependence involving the family of multivariate mixed Erlang distributions. Other models based on mixtures involving bivariate and multivariate copulas in a more general setting are then presented. These different structures allow to link the number of claims to each claim amount, and to quantify the aggregate claim loss. Then, we use Archimedean and hierarchical Archimedean copulas in collective risk models, to model the dependence between the claim number random variable and the claim amount random variables involved in the random sum. Such dependence structures allow us to derive a computational methodology for the assessment of the aggregate claim amount. While being very flexible, this methodology is easy to implement, and can easily fit more complicated hierarchical structures.     

Bayesian Estimation and Statistical Analysis of Risk Measurements

The Bayesian model are established for the VaR and related risk measurements. The relationship between VaR and other risk measurements including expect shortfall, tail condition expectation and conditional value at risk are discussed. Furthermore, the Bayesian estimates and Bayesian predictors of these risk measurement are derived. Thirdly, the consistency and asymptotic normality in the exponential risk model are proved. Finally, the numerical simulation method is used to verify the convergence rate under different sample sizes.     

Optimal intervention under stress scenarios: A case of the Korean financial system

We consider optimal intervention methods under budget constraints when financial systems face economic shocks. We propose two policies formulated by mixed-integer linear programs where regulators inject cash into institutions. One is to minimize systemic losses, and the other is to minimize the number of defaulting institutions. Using publicly available data on the Korean financial system, we construct its entire network and apply stress scenarios to the system to compare the performances of intervention strategies and derive insights on their workings.     

Weber Correspondence Analysis: The One-Dimensional Case

When designing programs or software for the implementation of Monte Carlo (MC) hypothesis tests, we can save computation time by using sequential stopping boundaries. Such boundaries imply stopping resampling after relatively few replications if the early replications indicate a very large or a very small p value. We study a truncated sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) boundary and provide a tractable algorithm to implement it. We review two properties desired of any MC p value, the validity of the p value and a small resampling risk, where resampling risk is the probability that the accept/reject decision will be different than the decision from complete enumeration. We show how the algorithm can be used to calculate a valid p value and confidence intervals for any truncated SPRT boundary. We show that a class of SPRT boundaries is minimax with respect to resampling risk and recommend a truncated version of boundaries in that class by comparing their resampling risk (RR) to the RR of fixed boundaries with the same maximum resample size. We study the lack of validity of some simple estimators of p values and offer a new, simple valid p value for the recommended truncated SPRT boundary. We explore the use of these methods in a practical example and provide the MChtest R package to perform the methods.     

Dynamic models of segregation†

Some segregation results from the practices of organizations, some from specialized communication systems, some from correlation with a variable that is non‐random; and some results from the interplay of individual choices. This is an abstract study of the interactive dynamics of discriminatory individual choices. One model is a simulation in which individual members of two recognizable groups distribute themselves in neighborhoods defined by reference to their own locations. A second model is analytic and deals with compartmented space. A final section applies the analytics to ‘neighborhood tipping.’ The systemic effects are found to be overwhelming: there is no simple correspondence of individual incentive to collective results. Exaggerated separation and patterning result from the dynamics of movement. Inferences about individual motives can usually not be drawn from aggregate patterns. Some unexpected phenomena, like density and vacancy, are generated. A general theory of ‘tipping’ begins to emerge.     

Nonasymptotic analysis of robust regression with modified Huber's loss

To achieve robustness against the outliers or heavy-tailed sampling distribution, we consider an Ivanov regularized empirical risk minimization scheme associated with a modified Huber's loss for nonparametric regression in reproducing kernel Hilbert space. By tuning the scaling and regularization parameters in accordance with the sample size, we develop nonasymptotic concentration results for such an adaptive estimator. Specifically, we establish the best convergence rates for prediction error when the conditional distribution satisfies a weak moment condition.